Really strong piece Thomas. Couple reflections: What’s the binding constraint—settlement currency, or balance-sheet capacity? If Western banks/insurers can’t (or won’t) intermediate Venezuela risk at size, the “gravity” story stalls regardless of USD primacy. Does USD inflow stabilize Venezuela mechanically—or politically? Stabilization requires dollars circulating domestically (wages, procurement, capex). What governance/credibility conditions force circulation instead of offshore capture? Greetings from Caracas.
Really strong piece Thomas. Couple reflections: What’s the binding constraint—settlement currency, or balance-sheet capacity? If Western banks/insurers can’t (or won’t) intermediate Venezuela risk at size, the “gravity” story stalls regardless of USD primacy. Does USD inflow stabilize Venezuela mechanically—or politically? Stabilization requires dollars circulating domestically (wages, procurement, capex). What governance/credibility conditions force circulation instead of offshore capture? Greetings from Caracas.
I've been playing with an idea that a United States Sovereign Wealth Fund with bond issuing authority could act as the intermediary for Venezuela.